MODELING BURSTS IN THE ARRIVAL PROCESS TO AN EMERGENCY CALL CENTER
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In emergency call centers (for police, firemen, ambulances) a single event can sometimes trigger many incoming calls in a short period of time. Several people may call to report the same fire or the same accident, for example. Such a sudden burst of incoming traffic can have a significant impact on the responsiveness of the call center for other events in the same period of time. We examine data from the SOS Alarm center in Sweden. We also build a stochastic model for the bursts. We show how to estimate the model parameters for each burst by maximum likelihood, how to model the multivariate distribution of those parameters using copulas, and how to simulate the burst process from this model. In our model, certain events trigger an arrival process of calls with a random time-varying rate over a finite period of time of random length.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it