Short-Term Forecasting of Natural Gas Consumption Using Factor Selection Algorithm and Optimized Support Vector Regression
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forecasting of natural gas consumption has been essential for natural gas companies, customers, and governments. However, accurate forecasting of natural gas consumption is difficult, due to the cyclical change of the consumption and the complexity of the factors that influence the consumption. In this work, we constructed a hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) model to predict the short-term natural gas consumption and examine the effects of the factors in the consumption cycle. The proposed model combines factor selection algorithm (FSA), life genetic algorithm (LGA), and support vector regression (SVR), namely, as FSA-LGA-SVR. FSA is used to select factors automatically for different period based on correlation analysis. The LGA optimized SVR is utilized to provide the prediction of time series data. To avoid being trapped in local minima, the hyper-parameters of SVR are determined by LGA, which is enhanced due to newly added “learning” and “death” operations in conventional genetic algorithm. Additionally, in order to examine the effects of the factors in different period, we utilized the recent data of three big cities in Greece and divided the data into 12 subseries. The prediction results demonstrated that the proposed model can give a better performance of short-term natural gas consumption forecasting compared to the estimation value of existing models. Particularly, the mean absolute range normalized errors of the proposed model in Athens, Thessaloniki, and Larisa are 1.90%, 2.26%, and 2.12%, respectively.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it