Variability of spatial patterns of autocorrelation and heterogeneity embedded in precipitation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is an essential input for hydrological modelling. At present, the most frequently used spatial interpolation methods for precipitation are based on the assumption of stationary in spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity. As climate change is altering the precipitation, stationary in spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity should be first analysed before spatial interpolation methods are applied. This study aims to propose a framework to understand the spatial patterns of autocorrelation and heterogeneity embedded in precipitation using Moran's I, Getis–Ord test, and semivariogram. Variations in autocorrelation and heterogeneity are analysed by the Mann–Kendall test. The indexes and test methods are applied to the 7-day precipitation series which are corresponding to the annual maximum 7-day flood volume (P-AM7FV) upstream of the Changjiang river basin. The spatial autocorrelation of the P-AM7FV showed a statistically significant increasing trend over the whole study area. Spatial interpolation schemes for precipitation may lead to better estimation and lower error for the spatial distribution of the areal precipitation. However, owing to the changing summer monsoons, random variation in the spatial heterogeneity analysis shows a significant increasing trend, which reduces the reliability of the distributed hydrological model with the input of local or microscales.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it