Fuzzy Logic-Based Data Analytics on Predicting the Effect of Hurricanes on the Stock Market
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the current era of big data, high volumes of a wide variety of valuable data of different veracity are generated or collected at a high velocity. A rich source of these big data is the stock market. Since the inception of the stock market, people have been trying to "beat" it for the purpose of monetary gain. A stock market is an exchange where people trade shares of companies, also called stocks. The purpose of the exchange is to make it easy to match buyers and sellers together to make transactions. The usual goal of someone participating in the stock market it to generate profit through the buying and selling of stocks. The main way people accomplish this is by buying a stock, waiting anywhere from seconds to decades, and then hopefully selling for more than they bought it for. This is where the common term "buy low, sell high" comes from. There are many factors (e.g., hurricanes) that may affect the stock price. In this paper, we present a computational intelligent tool that applies fuzzy logic-based data analytics to predict the effect of hurricanes on the stock market.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".