Corrosion Growth Modeling by Learning a Dynamic Bayesian Network From Multiple In-Line Inspection Data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper establishes a dynamic Bayesian network to model the growth of corrosion defects on energy pipelines. The integrated model characterizes the growth of defect depth by a homogeneous gamma process and considers the biases and random errors associated with the in-line inspection (ILI) tools. The distributions of the mean value and coefficient of variation of the annual growth of defect depth are learned from multiple ILI data using the parameter learning technique of Bayesian networks. With the same technique, the distributions of the biases and standard deviation of random errors associated with ILI tools are learned from ILI data and their corresponding field measurements. An example with real corrosion management data is used to illustrate the process of developing the model structure, learning model parameters and predicting the corrosion growth and time-dependent failure probability. The results indicate that the model can in general predict the growth of corrosion defects with reasonable accuracy and the ILI-reported and field-measured depth can be used to update the time-dependent failure probability in a near-real-time manner. In comparison with existing growth models, the graphical feature of Bayesian networks makes it more intuitive and transparent to users. The employment of parameter learning provides a semi-automated and convenient approach to elicit the probabilistic information from ILI and field measurement data. The above advantages will facilitate the application of the model in the practice of corrosion management in pipeline industry.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it