FBM-Based Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Degradation Processes With Long-Range Dependence and Multiple Modes
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
For some practical industrial systems or components, such as blast furnaces and Li-ion batteries, there are two important factors to model the degradation processes. One is the long-range dependence, which can reflect the non-Markovian nature of the degradation processes. The other factor is the existence of multiple modes, because the operating conditions and external environments inevitably change during the whole lifetime of these systems. In this paper, we first propose a fractional Brownian motion (FBM) based degradation model with long-range dependence and multiple modes, and then consider the prediction of remaining useful life. To identify the multiple modes in the degradation process, we propose a two-step method, including change-points detection and linear segments clustering. In each degradation mode, the degradation rate is assumed to be normally distributed. The means and variances of these distributions can be obtained by the maximum likelihood estimation. To describe the switching between different modes, the continuous-time Markov chain is applied, and its transition rate matrix can be estimated by the historical switching time. An approximation of the first passage time with a predefined threshold can be obtained by a weak convergence theorem and a time-space transformation. A numerical simulation and a practical case of a blast furnace wall are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it