An interpretable boosting model to predict side effects of analgesics for osteoarthritis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common disease of arthritis. Analgesics are widely used in the treat of arthritis, which may increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases by 20% to 50% overall.There are few studies on the side effects of OA medication, especially the risk prediction models on side effects of analgesics. In addition, most prediction models do not provide clinically useful interpretable rules to explain the reasoning process behind their predictions. In order to assist OA patients, we use the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) method to balance the accuracy and interpretability of the prediction model. RESULTS: In this study we used the XGBoost model as a classifier, which is a supervised machine learning method and can predict side effects of analgesics for OA patients and identify high-risk features (RFs) of cardiovascular diseases caused by analgesics. The Electronic Medical Records (EMRs), which were derived from public knee OA studies, were used to train the model. The performance of the XGBoost model is superior to four well-known machine learning algorithms and identifies the risk features from the biomedical literature. In addition the model can provide decision support for using analgesics in OA patients. CONCLUSION: Compared with other machine learning methods, we used XGBoost method to predict side effects of analgesics for OA patients from EMRs, and selected the individual informative RFs. The model has good predictability and interpretability, this is valuable for both medical researchers and patients.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it