Premature Mortality Due to PM<sub>2.5</sub> Over India: Effect of Atmospheric Transport and Anthropogenic Emissions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The annual premature mortality in India attributed to exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) exceeds 1 million (Cohen et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140‐6736(17)30505‐6 ). Studies have estimated sector‐specific premature mortality from ambient PM 2.5 exposure in India and shown residential energy use is the dominant contributing sector. In this study, we estimate the contribution of PM 2.5 and premature mortality from six regions of India in 2012 using the global chemical‐transport model. We calculate how premature mortality in India is determined by the transport of pollution from different regions. Of the estimated 1.1 million annual premature deaths from PM 2.5 in India, about ~60% was from anthropogenic pollutants emitted from within the region in which premature mortality occurred, ~19% was from transport of anthropogenic pollutants between different regions within India, ~16% was due to anthropogenic pollutants emitted outside of India, and ~4% was associated with natural PM 2.5 sources. The emissions from Indo Gangetic Plain contributed to ~46% of total premature mortality over India, followed by Southern India (13%). Indo Gangetic Plain also contributed (~8%) to the most premature mortalities in other regions of India through transport. More than 50% of the premature mortality in Northern, Eastern, Western, and Central India was due to transport of PM 2.5 from regions outside of these individual regions. Our results indicate that reduction in anthropogenic emissions over India, as well as its neighboring regions, will be required to reduce the health impact of ambient PM 2.5 in India.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it