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Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA
B. P. Abbott, R. Abbott, T. D. Abbott, F. Acernese, K. Ackley, C. Adams, V. B. Adya, C. Affeldt, M. Agathos, K. Agatsuma, O. D. Aguiar, L. Aiello, A. Ain, P. Ajith, T. Akutsu, A. Allocca, P. A. Altin, A. Ananyeva, S. B. Anderson, W. G. Anderson, Masaki Ando, S. Appert, K. Arai, A. Araya, M. C. Araya, J. S. Areeda, N. Arnaud, K. G. Arun, S. Ascenzi, G. Ashton, Y. Aso, S. M. Aston, P. Astone, P. Aufmuth, A. Avila-Alvarez, S. Babak, P. Bacon, M. K. M. Bader, Luca Baiotti, P. T. Baker, F. Baldaccini, G. Ballardin, S. Ballmer, J. C. Barayoga, S. E. Barclay, B. C. Barish, D. Barker, F. Barone, B. Barr, M. Barsuglia, D. Barta, J. Bartlett, M. A. Barton, I. Bartos, R. Bassiri, A. Basti, M. Bazzan, B. Bécsy, M. Bejger, I. Belahcene, A. S. Bell, B. K. Berger, G. Bergmann, C. P. L. Berry, D. Bersanetti, A. Bertolini, J. Betzwieser, R. Bhandare, I. A. Bilenko, G. Billingsley, J. Birch, R. Birney, O. Birnholtz, A. Bisht, M. Bitossi, M. A. Bizouard, J. K. Blackburn, C. D. Blair, D. G. Blair, R. M. Blair, S. Bloemen, M. Boër, G. Bogaert, F. Bondu, R. Bonnand, B. A. Boom, R. Bork, V. Boschi, S. Bose, Y. Bouffanais, A. Bozzi, C. Bradaschia, P. R. Brady, M. Branchesi, J. E. Brau, T. Briant, A. Brillet, M. Brinkmann, V. Brisson, P. Brockill, A. F. Brooks, D. Brown, DA Brown, S. Brunett, T. Bulik, H. J. Bulten, Alessandra Buonanno, D. Buskulic, C. Buy, Robert L. Byer, M. Cabero, L. Cadonati, G. Cagnoli, C. Cahillane, J. Calderón Bustillo, T. A. Callister, E. Calloni, J. B. Camp, K. C. Cannon, H. Cao, J. Cao, E. Capocasa, F. Carbognani, S. Caride, J. Casanueva Diaz, C. Casentini, S. Caudill, M. Cavaglià, F. Cavalier, R. Cavalieri, G. Cella, G. Cerretani, E. Cesarini, S. J. Chamberlin, M. Chan, S. Chao, P. Charlton, E. Chassande‐Mottin, B. D. Cheeseboro, H. Y Chen, Y. Chen, H.-P. Cheng, A. Chincarini, A. Chiummo, H. S Cho, M. Cho, N. Christensen, Q. Chu, S. Chua, S. Chung, G. Ciani, F. Clara, J. A. Clark, F. Cleva, C. Cocchieri, E. Coccia, P.-F. Cohadon, Christophe Collette, L. Cominsky, M. Constancio, L. Conti, S. J. Cooper, T. R. Corbitt, Neil J. Cornish, A. Corsi, S. Cortese, C. A. Costa, M. W. Coughlin, S. B. Coughlin, J.‐P. Coulon, S. T. Countryman, P. Couvares, P. B. Covas, E. E. Cowan, D. M. Coward, M. J. Cowart, D. C. Coyne, R. Coyne, J. D. E. Creighton, J. Cripe, S. G. Crowder, T. J. Cullen, A. Cumming, L. Cunningham, E. Cuoco, S. L. Danilishin, S. D’Antonio, K. Danzmann, C. F. Da Silva Costa, V. Dattilo, I. Dave, M. Davier, D. Davis, E. J. Daw, D. DeBra, J. Degallaix, M. De Laurentis, S. Deléglise, W. Del Pozzo, T. Dent, R. De Rosa, R. DeSalvo, S. Dhurandhar, M. C. Díaz, Z. Doctor, Katsumi Doi, F. Donovan, K. L. Dooley, S. Doravari, I. Dorrington, T. P. Downes, M. Drago, J. C. Driggers, Zhihui Du, S. E. Dwyer, T. B. Edo, M. C. Edwards, A. Effler, P. Ehrens, J. Eichholz, S. S. Eikenberry, Z. B. Etienne, T. Etzel, T. M. Evans, V. Fafone, H. Fair, S. Fairhurst, X. Fan, S. Farinon, B. Farr, Will M. Farr, E. J. Fauchon-Jones, M. Favata, M. Fays, M. M. Fejer, I. Ferrante, E. C. Ferreira, F. Ferrini, F. Fidecaro, I. Fiori, D. Fiorucci, R. P. Fisher, R. Flaminio, M. Fletcher, J.‐D. Fournier, S. Frasca, F. Frasconi, Z. Frei, A. Freise, R. Frey, V. V. Frolov, Yoshinori Fujii, P. Fulda, M. Fyffe, H. Gabbard, B. U. Gadre, S. M. Gaebel, J. R. Gair, L. Gammaitoni, S. G. Gaonkar, F. Garufi, G. Gaur, V. Gayathri, J. Henry, G. Gemme, É. Genin, A. Gennai, J. George, L. Gergely, V. Germain, S. Ghonge, Abhirup Ghosh, Archisman Ghosh, Shaon Ghosh, J. A. Giaime, K. D. Giardina, A. Giazotto, K. Gill, E. Goetz, R. Goetz, G. González, A. Gopakumar, M. L. Gorodetsky, S. E. Gossan, M. Gosselin, R. Gouaty, A. Grado, C. Graef, M. Granata, A. Grant, C. Gray, G. Greco, A. C Green, P. Groot, H. Grote, S. Grünewald, G. M. Guidi, A. Gupta, Manoj Gupta, E. K. Gustafson, R. Gustafson, Masatoshi Hagiwara, E. D. Hall, G. Hammond, M. Haney, Manfred Hanke, J. Hanks, C. Hanna, M. D. Hannam, J. Hanson, T. Hardwick, J. Harms, I. W. Harry, C.‐J. Haster, K. Haughian, K. Hayama, James Healy, A. Heidmann, M. C. Heintze, H. Heitmann, P. Hello, G. Hemming, M. Hendry, I. S. Heng, J. Hennig, A. Heptonstall, M. Heurs, S. Hild, E. Hirose, D. Hoak, D. Hofman, K. Holt, D. E. Holz, P. Hopkins, J. Hough, E. J. Howell, E. A. Huerta, D. Huet, B. Hughey, S. Husa, S. H. Huttner, T. Huynh–Dinh, R. Inta, Kunihito Ioka, H. N. Isa, J.-M. Isac, M. Isi, Y. Itoh, B. R. Iyer, K. Izumi, T. Jacqmin, K. Jani, P. Jaranowski, D. I. Jones, R. W. L. Jones, R. J. G. Jonker, L. Ju, J. Junker, T. Kajita, C. V. Kalaghatgi, V. Kalogera, M. Kamiizumi, N. Kanda, S. Kandhasamy, G. Kang, J. B. Kanner, S. Karki, K. S. Karvinen, M. Kasprzack, W. Katzman, S. Kaufer, K. Kawabe, N. Kawai, F. Kéfélian, D. Keitel, R. Kennedy, J. S. Key, F. Y. Khalili, I. Khan, S. Khan, Z. Khan, Е. А. Хазанов, N. Kijbunchoo, C. Kim, J. C Kim, J. Kim, W. Kim, Y.-M. Kim, N. Kimura, E. J. King, Peter King, R. Kirchhoff, J. S. Kissel, L. Kleybolte, S. Klimenko, Patrick M. Koch, S. M. Koehlenbeck, Y. Kojima, K. Kokeyama, S. Koley, K. Komori, V. Kondrashov, M. Korobko, W. Z. Korth, Kei Kotake, I. Kowalska, D. B. Kozak, V. Kringel, A. Królak, P. Kumar, Rahul Kumar, L. Kuo, A. Kutynia, B. D. Lackey, M. Landry, R. N. Lang, J. Lange, B. Lantz, A. Lartaux-Vollard, P. D. Lasky, M. Laxen, A. Lazzarini, C. Lazzaro, P. Leaci, S. Leavey, Chang‐Hwan Lee, H. K. Lee, J. Lehmann, A. Lenon, M. Leonardi, N. Leroy, N. Letendre, Y. Levin, A. Nitz, T. G. F. Li, T. Littenberg, J. Liu, N. A. Lockerbie, L. T. London, M. Lorenzini, V. Loriette, M. Lormand, G. Losurdo, J. D. Lough, C. O. Loustó, Geoffrey Lovelace, H. Lück, Andy Lundgren, Y. Ma, S. Macfoy, D. M. Macleod, F. Magaña‐Sandoval, E. Majorana, I. Maksimovic, N. Man, V. Mandic, V. Mangano, G. L. Mansell, M. Mantovani, F. Marchesoni, M. Marchio, F. Marion, Szabolcs Márka, Z. Márka, A. S. Markosyan, E. Maros, F. Martelli, I. W. Martin, A. Masserot, T. J. Massinger, M. Masso‐Reid, S. Mastrogiovanni, L. Matone, N. Mazumder, R. McCarthy, D. E. McClelland, S. McCormick, S. C. McGuire, J. McIver, D. J. McManus, T. McRae, S. T. McWilliams, D. Meacher, G. D. Meadors, J. Meidam, A. Melatos, G. Mendell, R. A. Mercer, E. L. Merilh, M. Merzougui, S. Meshkov, C. Messenger, C. Messick, R. Metzdorff, P. M. Meyers, H. Miao, C. Michel, Yuta Michimura, H. Middleton, Е. Е. Михайлов, L. Milano, A. L. Miller, M. Millhouse, Y. Minenkov, C. Mishra, O. Miyakawa, G. Mitselmakher, A. Miyamoto, S. Miyoki, M. Montani, C. J. Moore, D. Moraru, G. Moreno, S. Morisaki, Y. Moriwaki, B. Mours, C. M. Mow–Lowry, Arunava Mukherjee, Debnandini Mukherjee, S. Mukherjee, N. Mukund, A. Mullavey, J. Münch, E. A. Muñiz, P. G. Murray, S. Nagano, K. Nakamura, Hiroyuki Nakano, I. Nardecchia, T. Narikawa, L. Naticchioni, G. Nelemans, T. J. N. Nelson, M. Nery, A. Neunzert, D. Schuette, S. Nissanke, F. Nocera, L. K. Nuttall, J. Oberling, G. H. Ogin, J. J. Oh, S. H. Oh, M. Ohashi, N. Ohishi, Masashi Ohkawa, F. Ohme, K. Okutomi, M. Oliver, K. Oohara, P. Oppermann, Richard J. Oram, B. O’Reilly, R. O’Shaughnessy, D. J. Ottaway, H. Overmier, B. J. Owen, A. E. Pace, A. Pai, S. A. Pai, J. R. Palamos, O. Palashov, C. Palomba, A. Pal‐Singh, C. Pankow, F. Pannarale, B. C. Pant, F. Paoletti, A. Paoli, M. A. Papa, W. Parker, D. Pascucci, A. Pasqualetti, R. Passaquieti, D. Passuello, B. Patricelli, B. L. Pearlstone, M. Pedraza, R. Pedurand, A. Pele, F. E. Peña Arellano, S. Penn, C. J. Perez, A. Perreca, Harald Pfeiffer, M. Phelps, O. J. Piccinni, M. Pichot, F. Piergiovanni, G. Pillant, L. Pinard, I. M. Pinto, M. Pitkin, R. Poggiani, P. Popolizio, J. Powell, J. Prasad, T. Prestegard, S. Privitera, G. A. Prodi, L. Prokhorov, O. Puncken, M. Punturo, P. Puppo, M. Pürrer, H. Qi, V. Quetschke, E. A. Quintero, R. Quitzow-James, F. J. Raab, H. Radkins, P. Raffai, S. Raja, C. Rajan, M. Rakhmanov, P. Rapagnani, V. Raymond, M. Razzano, J. Read, T. Regimbau, L. Rei, S. Reid, D. H. Reitze, K. Riles, M. Rizzo, N. A. Robertson, R. Robie, F. Robinet, A. Rocchi, L. Rolland, J. G. Rollins, V. J. Roma, R. Romano, J. H. Romie, D. Rosińska, S. Rowan, A. Rüdiger, P. Ruggi, K. Ryan, S. Sachdev, T. Sadecki, N. Sago, Yasunori Saito, K. Sakai, Mairi Sakellariadou, L. Salconi, M. Saleem, A. Samajdar, L. Sammut, E. J. Sanchez, V. Sandberg, J. R. Sanders, B. Sassolas, B. S. Sathyaprakash, S. Sato, Takashi Sato, O. Sauter, R. L. Savage, P. Schale, Jacob Scheuer, P. Schmidt, Roman Schnabel, R. M. S. Schofield, A. Schönbeck, E. Schreiber, Guanglei Wu, B. F. Schutz, S. G. Schwalbe, J. Scott, S. M. Scott, T. Sekiguchi, Yuichiro Sekiguchi, James A. Sellers, A. S. Sengupta, D. Sentenac, V. Sequino, A. Sergeev, Y. Setyawati, D. A. Shaddock, Thomas Shaffer, M. S. Shahriar, P. Shawhan, T. Shimoda, A. Shoda, K. Siellez, M. Sieniawska, D. Sigg, A. D Silva, L. P. Singer, A. Singhal, A. M. Sintes, B. J. J. Slagmolen, J. R. Smith, R. J. E. Smith, K. Somiya, Edwin J. Son, B. Sorazu, F. Sorrentino, T. Souradeep, A. P. Spencer, A. K. Srivastava, M. Steinke, J. Steinlechner, S. Steinlechner, D. Steinmeyer, S. P. Stevenson, R. Stone, K. A. Strain, G. Stratta, S. E. Strigin, R. Sturani, A. L. Stuver, T. Z. Summerscales, L. Sun, P. J. Sutton, B. L. Swinkels, M. J. Szczepańczyk, M. Tacca, H. Tagoshi, Hirotaka Takahashi, Ryutaro Takahashi, A. Takamori, D. Talukder, Hiroki Tanaka, D. B. Tanner, M. Tápai, A. Taracchini, Richard W. Taylor, S. Telada, M. Thomas, P. Thomas, K. A Thorne, E. Thrane, V. Tiwari, K. Toland, T. Tomaru, M. Tonelli, Z. Tornasi, C. I. Torrie, D. Töyrä, F. Travasso, G. Traylor, M. C. Tringali, L. Trozzo, R. Tso, K. Tsubono, Toshihiro Tsuzuki, D. Tuyenbayev, Takashi Uchiyama, T. Uehara, K. Ueno, D. Ugolini, B. Krishnan, A. L. Urban, T. Ushiba, S. A. Usman, H. Vahlbruch, G. Vajente, G. Valdés, J. F. J. van den Brand, D. C. Vander‐Hyde, L. van der Schaaf, J. V. van Heijningen, Maurice H. P. M. van Putten, M. Vardaro, Vijay Varma, S. Vass, M. Vasúth, A. Vecchio, G. Vedovato, J. Veitch, P. J. Veitch, K. Venkateswara, G. Venugopalan, D. Verkindt, F. Vetrano, A. Viceré, A. D. Viets, D. J. Vine, J.-Y. Vinet, T. Vo, H. Vocca, C. Vorvick, S. P. Vyatchanin, A. R. Wade, L. E. Wade, M. Wade, M. Walker, L. Wallace, S. Walsh, G. Wang, H. Wang, Y. Wang, R. L. Ward, J. Warner, M. Wąs, J. Watchi, B. Weaver, L.‐W. Wei, M. Weinert, A. J. Weinstein, L. Wen, P. Weßels, K. Wette, J. T. Whelan, B. F. Whiting, C. Whittle, D. R. Williams, A. R. Williamson, J. L. Willis, B. Willke, M. H. Wimmer, W. Winkler, C. C. Wipf, H. Wittel, G. Woan, J. Woehler, John R. Worden, J. L. Wright, D. S. Wu, H. Yamamoto, K. Yamamoto, C. C. Yancey, M. J. Yap, Jun’ichi Yokoyama, T. Yokozawa, Hang Yu, Haocun Yu, H. Yuzurihara, M. Yvert, A. Zadrożny, M. Zanolin, S. Zeidler, J.-P. Zendri, M. Zevin, L. Zhang, T. Zhang, C. Zhao, M. Zhou, Z. Zhou, X. J. Zhu, J. Zweizig
Bibliographic record
VenueLiving Reviews in Relativity · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicGeophysics and Gravity Measurements
Canadian institutionsPolytechnique MontréalCanadian Institute for Theoretical AstrophysicsUniversity of Toronto
FundersDivision of Human Resource DevelopmentGreat Southern Development Commission, Government of Western AustraliaJapan Society for the Promotion of ScienceAustralian Research CouncilScience and Technology Facilities CouncilIstituto Nazionale di Fisica NucleareMinistry of Education, IndiaConseil Régional, Île-de-FranceNational Research Foundation of KoreaGovern de les Illes BalearsNederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk OnderzoekMinistry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and TechnologyKorea Institute of Science and Technology InformationHungarian Scientific Research FundGeneralitat ValencianaIndustry CanadaKavli FoundationNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Research, Development and Innovation OfficeAgencia Estatal de InvestigaciónSchweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen ForschungAgence Nationale de la RechercheInstitute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of TokyoCentre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research, IndiaNational Research FoundationAcademia SinicaNemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs HivatalAbdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical PhysicsEuropean CommissionRussian Foundation for Basic ResearchEuropean Regional Development FundScottish Universities Physics AllianceICTP South American Institute for Fundamental ResearchCanadian Institute for Advanced ResearchRussian Science FoundationLeverhulme TrustScottish Funding CouncilMinistero dello Sviluppo EconomicoInstitut des Origines de LyonScience and Engineering Research BoardNational Science FoundationMax-Planck-GesellschaftRoyal Society
KeywordsLIGOGravitational wavePhysicsComputer scienceAstronomy
Abstract
Abstract We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of $$10^{5}, 10^{6}, 10^{7}\mathrm {\ Mpc}^3$$ 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of $$1^{+12}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 12 ( $$10^{+52}_{-10}$$ 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of $$0^{+19}_{-0}$$ 0 - 0 + 19 ( $$1^{+91}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star–black hole mergers, and $$17^{+22}_{-11}$$ 17 - 11 + 22 ( $$79^{+89}_{-44}$$ 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.007
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Review · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.008
Threshold uncertainty score0.018
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.048
GPT teacher head0.244
Teacher spread0.196 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreReview
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
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Citations1
Published2020
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes