Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-City Multi-Country Study
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Previous literature suggests that higher temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide, but little is known about the nonlinear temperature-suicide association. We examined a nonlinear exposure-response curve of the short-term association using a daily time-series data covering 294 locations in 10 countries (Brazil, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Spain, Taiwan, UK, USA, and Vietnam) ranging from 4 to 40 years.We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. In the first stage, we conducted a location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analysis to examine the short-term association between suicide and temperature (daily mean) using conditional Poisson regression. A distributed lag nonlinear structure for temperature was incorporated with the maximum lag of 6 days. In the second stage, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations by country and identify a range of temperature with the highest risk of suicide.In general, higher temperature was associated with the increased risk of suicide. However, suicide risk decreased rather than increased during extremely high temperatures (inverted J-shaped curve) in some locations, particularly for northeast Asian countries. The temperature with the highest risk of suicide for each country ranged from 91st to 99th percentile except the Philippines and the USA. The country mean cumulative relative risks at the temperature with the highest risk relative to that at the lowest were fairly consistent across countries, ranging from 1.27 (95% CI= 1.15–1.40) in the UK to 1.70 (95% CI= 1.35–2.15) in Taiwan, except for Vietnam at 2.69 (95% CI= 1.10–6.56).We found nonlinearity of the short-term temperature-suicide association. Our findings suggest that there may be a critical range of temperature that maximizes the risk of suicide, with the risk less high at extremely high temperature such as heat waves.On behalf of the MCC collaborative research network.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it