Analyzing stock market trends using social media user moods and social influence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Information from microblogs is gaining increasing attention from researchers interested in analyzing fluctuations in stock markets. Behavioral financial theory draws on social psychology to explain some of the irrational behaviors associated with financial decisions to help explain some of the fluctuations. In this study we argue that social media users who demonstrate an interest in finance can offer insights into ways in which irrational behaviors may affect a stock market. To test this, we analyzed all the data collected over a 3‐month period in 2011 from Tencent Weibo (one of the largest microblogging websites in China). We designed a social influence (SI)‐based Tencent finance‐related moods model to simulate investors' irrational behaviors, and designed a Tencent Moods‐based Stock Trend Analysis (TM_STA) model to detect correlations between Tencent moods and the Hushen‐300 index (one of the most important financial indexes in China). Experimental results show that the proposed method can help explain the data fluctuation. The findings support the existing behavioral financial theory, and can help to understand short‐term rises and falls in a stock market. We use behavioral financial theory to further explain our findings, and to propose a trading model to verify the proposed model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".