Parallel genetic evolution and speciation from standing variation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Adaptation often proceeds from standing variation, and natural selection acting on pairs of populations is a quantitative continuum ranging from parallel to divergent. Yet, it is unclear how the extent of parallel genetic evolution during adaptation from standing variation is affected by the difference in the direction of selection between populations. Nor is it clear whether the availability of standing variation for adaptation affects progress toward speciation in a manner that depends on the difference in the direction of selection. We conducted a theoretical study investigating these questions and have two primary findings. First, the extent of parallel genetic evolution between two populations rapidly declines as selection changes from fully parallel toward divergent, and this decline is steeper in organisms with more traits (i.e., greater dimensionality). This rapid decline happens because small differences in the direction of selection greatly reduce the fraction of alleles that are beneficial in both populations. For example, populations adapting to optima separated by an angle of 33° might have only 50% of potentially beneficial alleles in common. Second, relative to when adaptation is from only new mutation, adaptation from standing variation improves hybrid fitness under parallel selection and reduces hybrid fitness under divergent selection. Under parallel selection, genetic parallelism from standing variation reduces the phenotypic segregation variance in hybrids, thereby increasing mean fitness in the parental environment. Under divergent selection, larger pleiotropic effects of alleles fixed from standing variation cause maladaptive transgressive phenotypes when combined in hybrids. Adaptation from standing genetic variation therefore slows progress toward speciation under parallel selection and facilitates progress toward speciation under divergent selection.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it