Linking the ball‐and‐cup analogy and ordination trajectories to describe ecosystem stability, resistance, and resilience
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The ball‐and‐cup diagram for conceptualizing ecosystem stability, resistance, and resilience is often presented as a ball rolling around within and between two or more cups. This analogy has a long history in ecology and has been used to illustrate ecosystem changes over time where the magnitude of changes required to push the ball from one cup to another represents a regime shift to an alternative state. Another approach for visualizing ecosystem stability, resistance, and resilience involves ordinations of repeated measures of community data or environmental variables and tracking trajectories over time in ordination space. Interestingly, the two approaches have not been linked in a meaningful way. Here, we provide a conceptual link between trajectories of ecological change in ordination space to the ball‐and‐cup analogy and show how distance‐based measures calculated from ordination scores can be used to quantitatively classify and evaluate the relative stability and resilience of ecological systems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".