Crude oil price shocks, monetary policy, and China's economy
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper develops a time‐varying parameter vector autoregressive model to examine the dynamic effects of crude oil prices and monetary policy on China's economy during January 1996 to June 2017. The empirical results indicate that (a) in general, international crude oil price shocks have positive effect on China's economic growth and inflation in the short run, but the long‐run effect appears diverse; (b) China's monetary policy shocks have positive effect on the economic growth and inflation overall; specifically, an increase in monetary supply can partly offset crude oil prices' negative effect on China's economic growth; (c) China's monetary policy has positive effect on crude oil prices and plays an important role in the relationship between crude oil price shocks and economy; and (d) during the recent global financial crisis, crude oil price shocks produce greater negative effect on China's economic growth, whereas the long‐run effect of monetary policy on China's economic growth proves weaker, compared with other periods.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it