The future of North American grassland birds: Incorporating persistent and emergent threats into full annual cycle conservation priorities
Bibliographic record
Abstract
North American grasslands are one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and grassland bird populations have experienced drastic declines over the past half century. Land‐use change is widely accepted as the most persistent threat, and climate change is expected to further compromise grassland integrity. The limited consideration of projected future threats is a significant gap in existing conservation priorities for North America's central grasslands. We identified Grassland Climate Strongholds (predicted to have high climate suitability for grassland birds both today and under 21st century climate change scenarios) and Grassland Climate and Land‐use Strongholds (predicted to have high climate and land‐use suitability for grassland birds today and under 21st century climate change scenarios). Strongholds were mainly distributed across southern Canada, the Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, the Oklahoma Panhandle, Texas, and the Chihuahuan Desert. Strongholds vulnerable to land‐use conversion included the Prairie Pothole region and surrounding areas, much of the eastern‐central Plains, the Texas Blackland Prairie, the Western Gulf Coastal Plain, and areas west of the Chihuahuan Desert. A maximum of only 9% of strongholds were protected. Strongholds are critical for full annual cycle conservation of declining grassland birds in North America and complement existing grassland priorities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".