A Spatially Explicit Comparison of Quantitative and Categorical Modelling Approaches for Mapping Seabed Sediments Using Random Forest
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Seabed sediment composition is an important component of benthic habitat and there are many approaches for producing maps that convey sediment information to marine managers. Random Forest is a popular statistical method for thematic seabed sediment mapping using both categorical and quantitative supervised modelling approaches. This study compares the performance and qualities of these Random Forest approaches to predict the distribution of fine-grained sediments from grab samples as one component of a multi-model map of sediment classes in Frobisher Bay, Nunavut, Canada. The second component predicts the presence of coarse substrates from underwater video. Spatial and non-spatial cross-validations were conducted to evaluate the performance of categorical and quantitative Random Forest models and maps were compared to determine differences in predictions. While both approaches seemed highly accurate, the non-spatial cross-validation suggested greater accuracy using the categorical approach. Using a spatial cross-validation, there was little difference between approaches—both showed poor extrapolative performance. Spatial cross-validation methods also suggested evidence of overfitting in the coarse sediment model caused by the spatial dependence of transect samples. The quantitative modelling approach was able to predict rare and unsampled sediment classes but the flexibility of probabilistic predictions from the categorical approach allowed for tuning to maximize extrapolative performance. Results demonstrate that the apparent accuracies of these models failed to convey important differences between map predictions and that spatially explicit evaluation strategies may be necessary for evaluating extrapolative performance. Differentiating extrapolative from interpolative prediction can aid in selecting appropriate modelling methods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".