Development and Validation of a New Risk Prediction Score for Life-Threatening Ventricular Tachyarrhythmias in Laminopathies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: An accurate estimation of the risk of life-threatening (LT) ventricular tachyarrhythmia (VTA) in patients with LMNA mutations is crucial to select candidates for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation. METHODS: We included 839 adult patients with LMNA mutations, including 660 from a French nationwide registry in the development sample, and 179 from other countries, referred to 5 tertiary centers for cardiomyopathies, in the validation sample. LTVTA was defined as (1) sudden cardiac death or (2) implantable cardioverter defibrillator-treated or hemodynamically unstable VTA. The prognostic model was derived using the Fine-Gray regression model. The net reclassification was compared with current clinical practice guidelines. The results are presented as means (SD) or medians [interquartile range]. RESULTS: We included 444 patients, 40.6 (14.1) years of age, in the derivation sample and 145 patients, 38.2 (15.0) years, in the validation sample, of whom 86 (19.3%) and 34 (23.4%) experienced LTVTA over 3.6 [1.0-7.2] and 5.1 [2.0-9.3] years of follow-up, respectively. Predictors of LTVTA in the derivation sample were: male sex, nonmissense LMNA mutation, first degree and higher atrioventricular block, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, and left ventricular ejection fraction (https://lmna-risk-vta.fr). In the derivation sample, C-index (95% CI) of the model was 0.776 (0.711-0.842), and the calibration slope 0.827. In the external validation sample, the C-index was 0.800 (0.642-0.959), and the calibration slope was 1.082 (95% CI, 0.643-1.522). A 5-year estimated risk threshold ≥7% predicted 96.2% of LTVTA and net reclassified 28.8% of patients with LTVTA in comparison with the guidelines-based approach. CONCLUSIONS: In comparison with the current standard of care, this risk prediction model for LTVTA in laminopathies significantly facilitated the choice of candidates for implantable cardioverter defibrillators. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT03058185.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".