Confidence Sets for Statistical Classification
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Classification has applications in a wide range of fields including medicine, engineering, computer science and social sciences among others. In statistical terms, classification is inference about the unknown parameters, i.e., the true classes of future objects. Hence, various standard statistical approaches can be used, such as point estimators, confidence sets and decision theoretic approaches. For example, a classifier that classifies a future object as belonging to only one of several known classes is a point estimator. The purpose of this paper is to propose a confidence-set-based classifier that classifies a future object into a single class only when there is enough evidence to warrant this, and into several classes otherwise. By allowing classification of an object into possibly more than one class, this classifier guarantees a pre-specified proportion of correct classification among all future objects. An example is provided to illustrate the method, and a simulation study is included to highlight the desirable feature of the method.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.050 | 0.183 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.011 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.013 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".