Reconstructing the past: the case of the Spadina Expressway
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In order to build resilient systems that can be operational for a long time, it is important that analysts are able to model the evolution of the requirements of that system. The Evolving Intentions framework models how stakeholders’ goals change over time. In this work, our aim is to validate applicability and effectiveness of this technique on a substantial case. In the absence of ground truth about future evolutions, we used historical data and rational reconstruction to understand how a project evolved in the past. Seeking a well-documented project with varying stakeholder intentions over a substantial period of time, we selected requirements of the Toronto Spadina Expressway. In this paper, we report on the experience and the results of modeling this project over different time periods, which enabled us to assess the modeling and reasoning capabilities of the approach, its support for asking and answering ‘what if’ questions, and the maturity of the underlying tool support. We also demonstrate a novel process for creating time-based models through the construction and merging of scenarios.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".