Accurate ethnicity prediction from placental DNA methylation data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The influence of genetics on variation in DNA methylation (DNAme) is well documented. Yet confounding from population stratification is often unaccounted for in DNAme association studies. Existing approaches to address confounding by population stratification using DNAme data may not generalize to populations or tissues outside those in which they were developed. To aid future placental DNAme studies in assessing population stratification, we developed an ethnicity classifier, PlaNET (Placental DNAme Elastic Net Ethnicity Tool), using five cohorts with Infinium Human Methylation 450k BeadChip array (HM450k) data from placental samples that is also compatible with the newer EPIC platform. RESULTS: Data from 509 placental samples were used to develop PlaNET and show that it accurately predicts (accuracy = 0.938, kappa = 0.823) major classes of self-reported ethnicity/race (African: n = 58, Asian: n = 53, Caucasian: n = 389), and produces ethnicity probabilities that are highly correlated with genetic ancestry inferred from genome-wide SNP arrays (> 2.5 million SNP) and ancestry informative markers (n = 50 SNPs). PlaNET's ethnicity classification relies on 1860 HM450K microarray sites, and over half of these were linked to nearby genetic polymorphisms (n = 955). Our placental-optimized method outperforms existing approaches in assessing population stratification in placental samples from individuals of Asian, African, and Caucasian ethnicities. CONCLUSION: PlaNET provides an improved approach to address population stratification in placental DNAme association studies. The method can be applied to predict ethnicity as a discrete or continuous variable and will be especially useful when self-reported ethnicity information is missing and genotyping markers are unavailable.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it