How States Order the World: A Typology of “Core” and “Peripheral” Foreign Policy
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Every state's foreign policy has to deal with other states, regions, and transnational issues, not all of whom are likely to receive the same level of policy-making interest and attention. States have differing foreign policy priorities, but how do we conceptualize those different priorities? To explain how states order the world and prioritize their foreign policy, I establish an ideal typology of “core” and “peripheral” foreign policy, which categorizes more and less important foreign policy spaces and issues. This typology contributes to foreign policy analysis's “middle-range” theorizing by establishing how and why the determinants, processes, and goals of foreign policy–making in these distinct types differ, and where policy-makers have the greatest ability to influence change in foreign policy. One of the key insights of this research relates to how structure and agency differently influence foreign policy–making: “core” foreign policy tends to be more structurally rigid and obtrusive, allowing less maneuverability for actor agency seeking to change the status quo, while “peripheral” foreign policy is less structurally rigid and obtrusive, allowing for greater actor agency in changing foreign policy direction and priorities. Hence, this typology should aid our understanding and prediction of foreign policy priorities and decisions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it