Applying a change-point control chart based on likelihood ratio to supply chain network monitoring
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, a supply chain network system is viewed as a serial-parallel multistage process; and the application of a change point control chart based on likelihood ratio is explored to monitor this system. Firstly, state-space modeling is used to characterize complexity of the supply chain network system. Then, a change point control chart based on likelihood ratio is built to trigger potential tardy orders in the system. A case study is illustrated to indicate that the change point control charts can effectively signal process mean shift, and accurately estimate the change point and the out-of-control stage in term of power of detection and the accuracy of estimation of change point. We also investigate the effect of misspecified parameters of state space equations on the performance of the change point control chart. The results show that the performance of the change point control chart is relatively stable.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it