OP36 Trans fatty acid biomarkers and incident type 2 diabetes: pooled analysis of 10 prospective cohort studies in the fatty acids and outcomes research consortium (FORCE)
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
<h3>Background</h3> Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major risk factor associated with cardiometabolic diseases, and a major contributor towards mortality and morbidity, given its rapidly rising prevalence worldwide. In experimental studies, t<i>rans</i>-fatty acids (TFAs) exert harmful biologic effects that may affect T2D risk, but findings from observational studies remain inconclusive, especially for biomarkers which provide an objective advantage with less recall bias and estimation errors. By pooling multiple studies, we may also increase generalizability, statistical power, and address potential interactions by subgroups. Therefore, we assessed prospective associations between circulating biomarkers of individual TFAs and incident T2D in a large, diverse sample. <h3>Methods</h3> We pooled ten prospective cohort or nested-case-control studies from Australia, Germany, Iceland, UK, and the USA to perform an analysis using harmonized individual level data for TFA biomarkers and incident T2D. Fatty acids (FAs) were measured in plasma phospholipid, red blood cell membrane phospholipid, or total plasma collected between 1990–2008 from 22,711 participants aged ≥18 years without prevalent diabetes. Evaluated TFAs included <i>trans</i>-16:1n-9, sum of <i>trans</i>-18:1 isomers (<i>trans</i>-18:1n6 to <i>trans</i>-18:1n12), sum of <i>trans</i>-18:2 isomers (<i>cis/trans</i>-18:2, <i>trans/cis</i>-18:2, <i>trans/trans</i>-18:2), and individual <i>trans</i>-18:2 isomers. The multivariable-adjusted relative risk or odds ratio was estimated for each cohort by lipid compartments using a pre-specified protocol for definitions of exposures, covariates, and outcomes for statistical analysis. Association estimates were pooled using fixed-effects inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. <h3>Results</h3> During an average maximum of 14 years of follow-up, 2,244 cases of incident T2D were identified. Median levels of TFAs across cohorts were 0.05–0.18% total FAs for <i>trans</i>-16:1n-9, 0.09–2.05% for total <i>trans</i>-18:1, 0.10–0.73% for total <i>trans</i>-18:2, and 0.01–0.36% for individual <i>trans</i>-18:2 isomers. In overall pooled analysis, TFAs evaluated per inter-quintile range were not significantly associated with risk of T2D. Relative risks for individual TFAs were 1.02 (0.78–1.32) for <i>trans</i>-16:1n-9, 0.92 (0.79–1.08) for total <i>trans</i>-18:1, 1.16 (0.98–1.37) for <i>trans/trans</i>-18:2, 0.98 (0.79–1.21) for <i>cis/trans</i>-18:2, 0.93 (0.76–1.14) for <i>trans/cis</i>-18:2, and 0.90 (0.78–1.04) for total <i>trans</i>-18:2. Findings were consistent when TFAs were assessed categorically by study-specific quintiles, and when associations were pooled within lipid compartment (phospholipids or total plasma). <h3>Conclusion</h3> We found that biomarker levels of TFAs were not significantly associated with risk of incident T2D in this international pooling project. Findings may reflect no effect of circulating TFA on T2D or be influenced by mixed TFA sources (industrial or ruminant), or to a general decline in TFA exposure during this period. Associations with T2D for higher levels of TFA biomarkers should be investigated.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it