Middle Atmosphere Temperature Trends in the Twentieth and Twenty‐First Centuries Simulated With the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We use Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model simulations made under various climate change scenarios to study the evolution of the global‐mean temperature trend in the late twentieth century and the twenty‐first century. Results are compared with available satellite observations, including new trend estimates derived from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument on NASA's TIMED spacecraft. Modeled and observed trends are shown to be consistent throughout the entire middle atmosphere, from near the tropopause (~16 km) to the lower thermosphere (~95 km) in the period covered by the satellite data. Simulations are extended into the twenty‐first century to document the evolution of the global‐mean temperature trend profile. We find, consistent with previous studies, a marked change in the trend profile at the turn of the twenty‐first century, which is driven by the recovery of stratospheric ozone following the adoption of the Montreal Protocol. In the twenty‐first century, the trend profile becomes more uniform with altitude, but its overall shape and magnitude are conditioned by the scenario adopted for future emissions of greenhouse gases. Our results suggest that the vertical profile of temperature trends in the middle atmosphere will remain an important signature of global climate change, and they underscore the importance of global, continuous monitoring of this region of the atmosphere.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".