Fake News Detection Using Bayesian Inference
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Given the huge volume of information available on social media, making a distinction between false information and a real one is a challenging task. In fact, several statistical models dealing with this problem are based on multinomial distributions. However, a new family of distributions that is an exponential family approximation to the Dirichlet Compound Multinomial (EDCM) has been introduced to be more adjustable to high-dimensional data and to overcome the drawbacks of the multinomial assumption. Thus, in this paper, we tackle the problem of fake news detection using finite mixture models of EDCM distributions. In particular, we develop a Bayesian approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for the learning of these mixture models. The proposed method is validated via extensive simulations and a comparison with multinomial-based mixture models is provided.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it