Improving mesoscale wind speed forecasts using lidar-based observation nudging for airborne wind energy systems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Airborne wind energy systems (AWESs) aim to operate at altitudes above conventional wind turbines where reliable high-resolution wind data are scarce. Wind light detection and ranging (lidar) measurements and mesoscale models both have their advantages and disadvantages when assessing the wind resource at such heights. This study investigates whether assimilating measurements into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using observation nudging generates a more accurate, complete data set. The impact of continuous observation nudging at multiple altitudes on simulated wind conditions is compared to an unnudged reference run and to the lidar measurements themselves. We compare the impact on wind speed and direction for individual days, average diurnal variability and long-term statistics. Finally, wind speed data are used to estimate the optimal traction power and operating altitudes of AWES. Observation nudging improves the WRF accuracy at the measurement location. Close to the surface the impact of nudging is limited as effects of the air–surface interaction dominate but becomes more prominent at mid-altitudes and decreases towards high altitudes. The wind speed frequency distribution shows a multi-modality caused by changing atmospheric stability conditions. Therefore, wind speed profiles are categorized into various stability conditions. Based on a simplified AWES model, the most probable optimal altitude is between 200 and 600 m. This wide range of heights emphasizes the benefit of such systems to dynamically adjust their operating altitude.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".