The impact of universal banking on macroeconomic dynamics: A nonlinear local projection approach
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We analyze the impact of universal banking on the real economy, by comparing the performance of a benchmark linear VAR model with a nonlinear projection process (Jordà, 2005) which tracks shocks asymmetries. We divide bank shocks into two categories—i.e., credit (loans) and fee-based shocks—and show that, based on U.S. data, fee-based shocks seem to have a significant feedback effect on real GDP and on the stock market. Bank fee-based activities are more sensitive to external shocks than traditional business lines (loans) and, more importantly, they are responsible for most of the feedback effects from the banking sector to the real economy and stock markets—especially during crises. Our results also indicate that in normal times, even if nonlinearities are less at play, the feedback effects remain significant, particularly since the 1997 regulatory changes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it