Predictive Properties and Factor Structure of the VRS-SO in an Austrian Sample
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. We examined the structural and predictive properties of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense (VRS-SO) version in an Austrian sample of N = 666 men incarcerated for sexual offenses; 353 of whom were followed up an average of 11 years post-release. Results of a confirmatory factor analysis of dynamic item scores supported a three-factor model (Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity) consistent with prior research. VRS-SO static, dynamic, and total scores showed good properties of discrimination for sexual (area under the receiver operating curve [AUC] = .68–.80) and violent (AUC = .65–.68) recidivism, while the factor scores showed differential prediction of these outcomes. Calibration analyses demonstrated lower estimated rates of 5-year sexual reoffense associated with VRS-SO score bands in the present sample compared to observed rates from the normative sample, with closest correspondence observed for the highest risk band (E/O index = 1.01). Implications for the psychometric properties and application of the VRS-SO in international settings are discussed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it