MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W2994853393 · doi:10.1080/01402390.2019.1692659

Lessons in deterrence: Evaluating coercive diplomacy in Syria, 2012–2019

2019· article· en· W2994853393 on OpenAlexafffund
John Mitton

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Strategic Studies · 2019
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicTerrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Calgary
FundersSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
KeywordsDeterrence theoryCredibilityDiplomacyPolitical scienceDeterrence (psychology)Relevance (law)PoliticsLaw and economicsPolitical economyEconomicsLaw

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This paper assesses deterrence efforts against the use of chemical weapons in Syria through the framework of rational deterrence theory (RDT). Deterrence succeeds and fails over stages and across time. In Syria, periodic deterrence breakdowns were linked to insufficient (or weakening) US commitment and resolve, which undermined US credibility. More broadly, the Syria case demonstrates the continued relevance of RDT, as well as the difficulties associated with establishing – and maintaining – successful deterrence. Policymakers must approach coercive diplomacy systematically, specifying the purpose of their strategy and weighing the goals of deterrence against alternative and additional political and/or military considerations.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.012
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.046
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Qualitative · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.044
Threshold uncertainty score0.087

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0120.046
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.002
Scholarly communication0.0030.003
Open science0.0010.003
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.218
GPT teacher head0.487
Teacher spread0.269 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designQualitative
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2019
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueJournal of Strategic StudiesSame topicTerrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political ViolenceFrench-language works237,207