Incidence and Prevalence of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Lung Disease in a Large U.S. Managed Care Health Plan, 2008–2015
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Rationale Estimating the annual incidence and prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) lung disease may assist in improving understanding of the public health and economic impacts of this disease and its treatment. Objective To estimate the yearly incidence and prevalence of administrative claims–based NTM lung disease between 2008 and 2015 in a U.S. managed care claims database. Methods We used a national managed care claims database (Optum Clinformatics Data Mart) representing a geographically diverse population of approximately 27 million members annually. All medical claims from January 1, 2007, to June 30, 2016, were scanned for diagnosis codes for NTM lung disease (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM] code 031.0 or ICD-10-CM code A31.0). We defined a case of NTM lung disease as having at least two medical claims with a code of 031.0 or A31.0 that were dated at least 30 days apart. Annual incidence and prevalence were estimated for each calendar year from 2008 to 2015. Results From 2008 to 2015, the annual incidence of NTM lung disease increased from 3.13 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.88–3.40) to 4.73 (95% CI, 4.43–5.05) per 100,000 person-years, and the annual prevalence increased from 6.78 (95% CI, 6.45–7.14) to 11.70 (95% CI, 11.26–12.16) per 100,000 persons. The average annual changes in incidence and prevalence were +5.2% (95% CI, 4.0–6.4%; P < 0.01) and +7.5% (95% CI, 6.7–8.2%; P < 0.01), respectively. For women, the annual incidence increased from 4.16 (95% CI, 3.76–4.60) to 6.69 (95% CI, 6.19–7.22) per 100,000 person-years, and the annual prevalence increased from 9.63 (95% CI, 9.08–10.22) to 16.78 (95% CI, 16.04–17.55) per 100,000 persons. For individuals aged 65 years or older, the annual incidence increased from 12.70 (95% CI, 11.46–14.07) to 18.37 (95% CI, 16.98–19.87) per 100,000 person-years, and the annual prevalence increased from 30.27 (95% CI, 28.41–32.24) to 47.48 (95% CI, 45.37–49.67) per 100,000 persons. The incidence and prevalence of NTM lung disease increased in most U.S. states and overall at the national level. Conclusions The incidence and prevalence of NTM lung disease appears to be increasing in the United States, particularly among women and older age groups.
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Direct model labels (unvalidated)
Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.
| Model arm | Categories | Study design | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemma | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | low |
| gpt | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | low |
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it