On continuous‐time capture‐recapture in closed populations
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Schofield et al. (2018, Biometrics 74, 626-635) presented simple and efficient algorithms for fitting continuous-time capture-recapture models based on Poisson processes. They also demonstrated by real examples that the standard method of discretizing continuous-time capture-recapture data and then fitting traditional discrete-time models may lead to information loss in population size estimation. In this article, we aim to clarify that key to the approach of Schofield et al. (2018) is the Poisson model assumed for the number of captures of each individual throughout the study, rather than the fact of data being collected in continuous time. We further show that the method of data discretization works equally well as the method of Schofield et al. (2018), provided that a Poisson model is applied instead of the traditional Bernoulli model to the number of captures for each individual on each sampling occasion.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it