Deep Learning for the Prediction of Stock Market Trends
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study, deep learning will be used to test the predictability of stock trends. Stock markets are known to be volatile, prices fluctuate, and there are many complicated financial indicators involved. Various data including news or financial indicators can be used to predict stock prices. In this study, the focus will be on using past stock prices and using technical indicators to increase the performance of the results. The goal of this study is to measure the accuracy of predictions and evaluate the results. Historical data is gathered for Apple, Microsoft, Google and Intel stocks. A prediction model is created by using past data and technical indicators were used as features in the model. The experiments were performed by using long short-term memory networks. Different approaches and techniques were tested to boost the performance of the results. To prove the usability of the final model in the real world and measure the profitability of results backtesting was performed. The final results show that while it is not possible to predict the exact price of a stock in the future to gain profitable results, deep learning can be used to predict the trend of stock markets to generate buy and sell signals.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".