The Presidential Amnesty Programme of 2009 and Nigerian Oil Production: a disaggregate econometric analysis
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We analyse the impact of the Presidential Amnesty Programme on crude oil production in Nigeria. The President of Nigeria instituted an amnesty programme in June 2009 to end the disruptive protests in the oil‐producing Niger Delta. Between 2006 and 2009, it is estimated that crude oil production losses exceeded 650,000 barrels per day, dramatically reducing government revenue. The amnesty programme provided militants a state pardon, educational training and a monthly stipend in exchange for the surrender of weapons. In this research, we use disaggregate oil‐well‐level data to estimate a difference‐in‐difference model of Nigerian crude oil production. The estimates reveal that the Presidential Amnesty Programme increased the oil output in the Niger Delta by about 40 per cent above the level that would have been achieved in the absence of the policy.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it