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Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Spencer L James, Chris D Castle, Zachary V Dingels, Jack T Fox, Erin B Hamilton, Zichen Liu, Nicholas L S Roberts, Dillon O Sylte, Nathaniel J Henry, Kate E LeGrand, Ahmed Abdelalim, Amir Abdoli, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Aidin Abedi, Akine Eshete, Abdelrahman Ibrahim Abushouk, Oladimeji Adebayo, Marcela Agudelo‐Botero, Tauseef Ahmad, Rushdiá Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Fares Alahdab, Genet Melak Alamene, Fahad Alanezi, Animut Alebel, Niguse Meles Alema, Suliman Alghnam, Samar Al‐Hajj, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Saqib Ali, Mahtab Alikhani, Cyrus Alinia, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Amir Almasi‐Hashiani, Nihad A. Almasri, Khalid A Altirkawi, Yasser Sami Amer, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab‐Zozani, Zohreh Arefi, Olatunde Aremu, Filippo Ariani, Amit Arora, Malke Asaad, Babak Asghari, Nefsu Awoke, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Samad Azari, Ghasem Azarian, Alaa Badawi, Ashish Badiye, Eleni Bagli, Atif Amin Baig, Mohan Bairwa, Ahad Bakhtiari, Arun Balachandran, Maciej Banach, Srikanta Banerjee, Palash Chandra Banik, Amrit Banstola, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Lope H. Barrero, Akbar Barzegar, Mohsen Bayati, Bayisa Abdissa Baye, Neeraj Bedi, Masoud Behzadifar, Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma, Habte Belete, Corina Benjet, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Guilherme Borges, Antonio Maria Borzì, Soufiane Boufous, Alexandra Bražinová, Н. И. Брико, Shyam Sundar Budhathoki, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Félix Carvalho, João Maurício Castaldelli-Maia, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Giulio Castelpietra, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Joht Singh Chandan, Wagaye Fentahun Chanie, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Irini Chatziralli, Neha Chaudhary, Daniel Cho, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Samantha Colquhoun, María Magdalena Constantin, Vera Marisa Costa, Giovanni Damiani, Ahmad Daryani, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Asmamaw Demis, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Desalegn Getnet Demsie, Afshin Derakhshani, Kebede Deribe, Rupak Desai, Mostafa Dianati Nasab, Diana Dias da Silva, Kerrie Doyle, Tim Driscoll, Eleonora Dubljanin, Bereket Duko Adema, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Aziz Eftekhari, Elham Ehsani‐Chimeh, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Ziad El‐Khatib, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Daniel Adane Endalew, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Pawan Faris, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Yousef Fatahi, Wubalem Fekadu, Tomas Y Ferede, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Pietro Ferrara, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan, Masoud Foroutan, Joel M Francis, Richard C. Franklin, Takeshi Fukumoto, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Berhe Gebremichael, Getnet Gedefaw, Birhanu Geta, Mansour Ghafourifard, Farhad Ghamari, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Asadollah Gholamian, Tiffany K Gill, Alessandra C. Goulart, Ayman Grada, Michal Grivna, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Yuming Guo, Gaurav Gupta, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Hassan Haghparast‐Bidgoli, Brian J. Hall, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Josep María Haro, Md. Mehedi Hasan, Amir Hasanzadeh, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Khezar Hayat, Delia Hendrie, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Martha Hı́jar, Hung Chak Ho, Chi Linh Hoang, Michael K. Hole, Ramesh Holla, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Sorin Hostiuc, Guoqing Hu, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena Ilić, Milena Ilić, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Endang Indriasih, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, M. Mofizul Islam, Rebecca Ivers, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Mohammad Ali Jahani, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Farzad Jalilian, Sudha Jayaraman, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ravi Prakash Jha, Yetunde O. John-Akinola, Jost B. Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Suresh Jungari, Mikk Jürisson, Ali Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Leila R Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Teshome Abegaz Kamil, Tanuj Kanchan, Neeti Kapoor, Manoochehr Karami, Amir Kasaeian, Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye, Taras Kavetskyy, Hafte Kahsay Kebede, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Bayew Kelkay, Yousef Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Nauman Khalid, Rovshan Khalilov, Mohammad Khammarnia, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Maseer Khan, Tripti Khanna, Habibolah Khazaie, Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani, Roba Khundkar, Daniel N Kiirithio, Young‐Eun Kim, Daniel Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kısa, Sezer Kısa, Hamidreza Komaki, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov, Ai Koyanagi, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Kewal Krishan, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Nuworza Kugbey, Vivek Kumar, Nithin Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Girikumar Kumaresh, Om Kurmi, Oluwatosin Kuti, Carlo La Vecchia, Faris Lami, Prabhat Lamichhane, Justin J. Lang, Van Charles Lansingh, Dennis Odai Laryea, Savita Lasrado, Arman Latifi, Paolo Lauriola, Janet L Leasher, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Miriam Levi, Shanshan Li, Shai Linn, Xuefeng Liu, Alan D Lopez, Paulo A. Lotufo, Raimundas Lunevičius, Ronan A Lyons, Mohammed Madadin, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Marek Majdán, Azeem Majeed, Jeadran Malagón-Rojas, Venkatesh Maled, Reza Malekzadeh, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Navid Manafi, Amir Manafi, Ana-Laura Manda, Narayana Manjunatha, Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Joemer C Maravilla, Lyn March, Amanda J. Mason‐Jones, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Pallab K Maulik, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Addisu Melese, Zeleke Aschalew Melketsedik, Peter Memiah, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, Meresa Berwo Mengesha, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Tuomo J Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Hayimro Edemealem Merie, Tomislav Meštrović, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R. Miller, GK Mini, Andreea Mirică, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Prasanna Mithra, Babak Moazen, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Efat Mohamadi, Yousef Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Shafiu Mohammed, Jemal Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Yoshan Moodley, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Masoud Moradi, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Farhad Moradpour, Lídia Morawska, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Naho Morisaki, Shane D. Morrison, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Srinivas Murthy, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Ashraf Nabhan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gurudatta Naik, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Morteza Naserbakht, Vinod C Nayak, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Ionuţ Negoi, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Peter S. Nyasulu, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Onome Bright Oghenetega, In‐Hwan Oh, Emmanuel Okunga, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna Onwujekwe, Kwaku Oppong Asante, Heather Orpana, Erika Ota, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, P A Mahesh, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Smita Pakhalé, Keyvan Pakshir, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Eun‐Kee Park, Sangram Kishor Patel, Ashish Pathak, Sanghamitra Pati, George Patton, Kebreab Paulos, Amy E. Peden, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Jeevan Pereira, Hai Quang Pham, Michael Phillips, Marina Pinheiro, Р. В. Полибин, Suzanne Polinder, Hossein Poustchi, Swayam Prakash, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Parul Puri, Mohammad Rabiee, Navid Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Ata Rafiee, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Siavash Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Ali Rajabpour-Sanati, Fatemeh Rajati, Ivo Rakovac, Kavitha Ranganathan, Sowmya J Rao, Vahid Rashedi, Prateek Rastogi, Priya Rathi, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Reza Rawassizadeh, Vishnu Renjith, André M. N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Aziz Rezapour, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Jennifer Rickard, Carlos Miguel Ríos-González, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Anas M. Saad, Yogesh Sabde, Siamak Sabour, Basema Saddik, Saeed Safari, Roya Safari‐Faramani, Hamid Safarpour, Mahdi Safdarian, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Farkhonde Salehi, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Marwa Rashad Salem, Hosni Salem, Omar Salman, Inbal Salz, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Lídia Sànchez-Riera, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Arash Sarveazad, Brijesh Sathian, Monika Sawhney, Susan M. Sawyer, Sonia Saxena, Mehdi Sayyah, David C. Schwebel, Soraya Seedat, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Feng Sha, Faramarz Shaahmadi, Saeed Shahabi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Hamid Sharifi, Aziz Sheikh, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Soraya Siabani, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Pankaj Kumar Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Catalin-Gabriel Smarandache, Emma Smith, Amin Soheili, Bija Soleymani, Ali Reza Soltanian, Joan B. Soriano, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Dan J. Stein, Mark A. Stokes, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Bryan L. Sykes, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Karen M. Tabb, Biruk Wogayehu, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Animut Tagele Tamiru, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Yibekal Manaye Tefera, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu, Ayenew Kassie, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Rekha Thapar, Asres Bedaso, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Hamid Reza Tohidinik, Roman Topór-Mądry, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Jaya Prasad Tripathy, Alexander C. Tsai, Lorainne Tudor Car, Saif Ullah, Irfan Ullah, Maida Umar, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Era Upadhyay, Olalekan A. Uthman, Pascual Valdéz, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Yasir Waheed, Girmay Teklay, Andrea Werdecker, Taweewat Wiangkham, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Dawit Habte Woldeyes, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh, Adam Wondmieneh, Aimin Wu, Rajaram Yadav, Ali Yadollahpour, Yuichiro Yano, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi‐Feyzabadi, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Yoosik Youm, Mustafa Z Younis, Zabihollah Yousefi, Yong Yu, Chuanhua Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Maryam Zamanian, Hamed Zandian, Ahmad Zarei, Fatemeh Zare, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Sanjay Zodpey, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Louisa Degenhardt, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Simon I Hay, Ali H. Mokdad, Robert C. Reiner, Benn Sartorius, Theo Vos
Bibliographic record
VenueInjury Prevention · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicInjury Epidemiology and Prevention
Canadian institutionsUniversity of AlbertaUniversity of British ColumbiaGlobal Affairs CanadaMcMaster UniversityUniversity of OttawaUniversity of ManitobaOttawa HospitalUniversité du Québec en Abitibi-TémiscaminguePublic Health Agency of CanadaUniversity of TorontoBC Children's Hospital
FundersFogarty International CenterGuy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation TrustNational Health and Medical Research CouncilSistema Nacional de Investigación, Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e InnovaciónXiamen UniversityU.S. Department of DefenseMinistarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog RazvojaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Cancer InstituteDeakin UniversityNational Institute on Drug AbusePublic Health AgencyNational Institutes of HealthMedical Research CouncilIndian Council of Medical ResearchNational Heart Foundation of AustraliaKing's College LondonPublic Health Agency of CanadaBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchWorld Health OrganizationWellcome TrustAlexander von Humboldt-StiftungEconomic and Social Research CouncilFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaBill and Melinda Gates FoundationInstituto de Salud Carlos IIIMinistério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino SuperiorNIH Clinical CenterAustralian GovernmentUnited Nations Population FundNational Science Foundation
KeywordsYears of potential life lostMedicineBurden of diseaseInjury preventionPoison controlIncidence (geometry)PopulationDisability-adjusted life yearDisease burdenDemographyOccupational safety and healthEpidemiologyMortality rateCause of deathQuality-adjusted life yearDiseaseGerontologyEnvironmental healthLife expectancySurgeryCost effectivenessInternal medicinePathology
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.007
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Meta-analysis · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.085
Threshold uncertainty score0.169
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.067
GPT teacher head0.395
Teacher spread0.329 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designMeta-analysis
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations210
Published2020
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes