Identifying Seasonality in Time Series by Applying Fast Fourier Transform
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The importance of studying time series is that most forecasting models assume that the time series must be stationary. In addition, non-stationary time series can cause unexpected behaviors or create a non-existing relationship between two variables. The aim of this study is to shine new light on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) technique through an examination of its efficiency in identifying the trend and seasonality by applying it to many time series. A comparison between the FFT technique and Autocorrelation Function (ACF) has been conducted as well. The results show that the FFT technique has acceptable performance in identifying the trend and seasonality. The most obvious observation is that, unlike the FFT technique, the ACF has limitations in determining the exact time of the seasonality that repeats itself.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it