Climate Model Projections of 21st Century Global Warming Constrained Using the Observed Warming Trend
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive includes larger ensembles, longer historical simulations, and models with a broader range of climate sensitivity than CMIP5. These features favor the application of observationally constrained climate projections. The 1970–2014 trend in global mean temperature is well‐correlated with projected future warming across the CMIP6 multimodel ensemble. We first evaluate an approach that weights simulations based on the realism and degree of independence of their 1970–2014 trends, by treating each historical simulation in turn as pseudo‐observations, and using the other models and weighting method to predict 21st century warming in the model concerned. The method performs well based on correlation and probabilistic measures. Applying the method using the observed 1970–2014 warming trend results in only small changes in the mean and lower bound of CMIP6 projected warming but substantially reduces the upper bound of projected early‐, mid‐ and late‐21st century warming under all SSP scenarios.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it