Data-driven Operation Risk Assessment of Wind-integrated Power Systems via Mixture Models and Importance Sampling
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The increasing penetration of highly intermittent wind generation could seriously jeopardize the operation reliability of power systems and increase the risk of electricity outages. To this end, this paper proposes a novel data-driven method for operation risk assessment of wind-integrated power systems. Firstly, a new approach is presented to model the uncertainty of wind power in lead time. The proposed approach employs k-means clustering and mixture models (MMs) to construct time-dependent probability distributions of wind power. The proposed approach can also capture the complicated statistical features of wind power such as multimodality. Then, a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation (NSMCS) technique is adopted to evaluate the operation risk indices. To improve the computation performance of NSMCS, a cross-entropy based importance sampling (CE-IS) technique is applied. The CE-IS technique is modified to include the proposed model of wind power. The method is validated on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system (RTS) and a modified IEEE 3-area RTS while employing the historical data of wind generation. The simulation results verify the importance of accurate modeling of short-term uncertainty of wind power for operation risk assessment. Further case studies have been performed to analyze the impact of transmission systems on operation risk indices. The computational performance of the framework is also examined.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it