The Role of Directionality, Heterogeneity, and Correlations in Epidemic Risk and Spread
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Most models of epidemic spread, including many designed specifically for COVID-19, implicitly assume mass-action contact patterns and undirected contact networks, meaning that the individuals most likely to spread the disease are also the most at risk to receive it from others.Here, we review results from the theory of random directed graphs which show that many important quantities, including the reproduction number and the epidemic size, depend sensitively on the joint distribution of in-and out-degrees ("risk" and "spread"), including their heterogeneity and the correlation between them.By considering joint distributions of various kinds, we elucidate why some types of heterogeneity cause a deviation from the standard Kermack-McKendrick analysis of SIR models, i.e., so-called mass-action models where contacts are homogeneous and random, and some do not.We also show that some structured SIR models informed by realistic complex contact patterns among types of individuals (age or activity) are simply mixtures of Poisson processes and tend not to deviate significantly from the simplest mass-action model.Finally, we point out some possible policy implications of this directed structure, both for contact tracing strategy and for interventions designed to prevent superspreading events.In particular, directed graphs have a forward and backward version of the classic "friendship paradox"-forward edges tend to lead to individuals with high risk, while backward edges lead to individuals with high spread-such that a combination of both forward and backward contact tracing is necessary to find superspreading events and prevent future cascades of infection.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it