Clinical decision support tool and rapid point-of-care platform for determining disease severity in patients with COVID-19
Bibliographic record
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which has reached pandemic levels resulting in significant morbidity and mortality affecting every inhabited continent. The large number of patients requiring intensive care threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems globally. Likewise, there is a compelling need for a COVID-19 disease severity test to prioritize care and resources for patients at elevated risk of mortality. Here, an integrated point-of-care COVID-19 Severity Score and clinical decision support system is presented using biomarker measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), N-terminus pro B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), myoglobin (MYO), D-dimer, procalcitonin (PCT), creatine kinase-myocardial band (CK-MB), and cardiac troponin I (cTnI). The COVID-19 Severity Score combines multiplex biomarker measurements and risk factors in a statistical learning algorithm to predict mortality. The COVID-19 Severity Score was trained and evaluated using data from 160 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from Wuhan, China. Our analysis finds that COVID-19 Severity Scores were significantly higher for the group that died versus the group that was discharged with median (interquartile range) scores of 59 (40-83) and 9 (6-17), respectively, and area under the curve of 0.94 (95% CI 0.89-0.99). Although this analysis represents patients with cardiac comorbidities (hypertension), the inclusion of biomarkers from other pathophysiologies implicated in COVID-19 (e.g., D-dimer for thrombotic events, CRP for infection or inflammation, and PCT for bacterial co-infection and sepsis) may improve future predictions for a more general population. These promising initial models pave the way for a point-of-care COVID-19 Severity Score system to impact patient care after further validation with externally collected clinical data. Clinical decision support tools for COVID-19 have strong potential to empower healthcare providers to save lives by prioritizing critical care in patients at high risk for adverse outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".