Projections of Extreme Ocean Waves in the Arctic and Potential Implications for Coastal Inundation and Erosion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Arctic Ocean wave climate is undergoing a dramatic change due to the sea ice retreat. This study presents simulations of the Arctic regional wave climate corresponding to the surface winds and sea ice concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for the historical (1975–2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future (2081–2100) periods. The annual maximum significant wave height is projected to increase up to 6 m offshore and up to two to three times greater than the corresponding 1979–2005 value along some coastlines, as waves become more exposed to the fall storms there. The connection between the Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic wave climates is projected to strengthen due to increase of swell influence. Changes in the wave direction also seem to indicate a weakening of the Beaufort High illustrated by a counterclockwise rotation of the mean wave direction for extreme conditions in the Western Arctic. The projected changes in wave conditions lead to a general increase of the wave‐driven erosion and inundation potential along the Arctic coastlines. Potentially, hazardous extreme wave events are projected to become significantly more frequent and more intense. For example, in the Beaufort coastlines a once‐in‐20‐year event under the historical (1979–2005) climate is projected to occur, on average, once every 2–5 years during 2081–2100. This is a pressing issue, as it affects many Arctic coastal communities, as well as existing and emerging Arctic infrastructure and activities, with some of them having already suffered severe wave‐induced damage in the past years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".