Copula‐based predictions in small area estimation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Unit‐level regression models are commonly used in small area estimation (SAE) to obtain an empirical best linear unbiased prediction of small area characteristics. The underlying assumptions of these models, however, may be unrealistic in some applications. Previous work developed a copula‐based SAE model where the empirical Kendall's tau was used to estimate the dependence between two units from the same area. In this article, we propose a likelihood framework to estimate the intra‐class dependence of the multivariate exchangeable copula for the empirical best unbiased prediction (EBUP) of small area means. One appeal of the proposed approach lies in its accommodation of both parametric and semi‐parametric estimation approaches. Under each estimation method, we further propose a bootstrap approach to obtain a nearly unbiased estimator of the mean squared prediction error of the EBUP of small area means. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through simulation studies and also by a real data application.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it