Estimating the Effect of Elagolix Treatment for Endometriosis on Postmenopausal Bone Outcomes: A Model Bridging Phase <scp>III</scp> Trials to an Older Real‐World Population
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Elagolix, a gonadotrophin‐releasing hormone antagonist, is used in premenopausal women with endometriosis. There is a risk of bone loss with elagolix, but the long‐term effects of BMD loss later in life cannot be directly assessed and has not been quantified. To address this gap in knowledge, this study indirectly estimated the impact of elagolix on postmenopausal fracture risk. BMD change in premenopausal women with endometriosis treated with elagolix was modeled from the phase III program data (elagolix group) and used to simulate treatment effects on (fracture risk assessment tool estimated) 10‐year risks of hip and major osteoporotic fracture in women ages 50 to 79 years from the 2005–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; N = 2303). Change in the proportion of women reaching risk‐based antiosteoporotic treatment thresholds was also estimated. For elagolix versus NHANES, median 10‐year risk of major osteoporotic fracture was 4.73% versus 4.70% in women ages 50 to 59 years, 7.03% versus 6.97% in women ages 60 to 69 years, and 10.83% versus 10.68% in women ages 70 to 79 years. Median 10‐year risk of hip fracture in these same groups was 0.19% versus 0.18% for women ages 50 to 59 years, 0.51% versus 0.49% for women 60 to 69 years, and 2.22% versus 2.14% for women 70 to 79 years. The proportion of women reaching risk‐based antiosteoporotic treatment thresholds caused by elagolix 150 mg daily for 12 months was 0.36% higher at age 50 to 59 years, 0.23% at age 60 to 69 years, and 1.79% at age 70 to 79 years. The number needed to harm was 643 for one additional hip fracture and 454 for one additional major osteoporotic fracture. Results were similar for elagolix 200 mg twice a day for 3 months. In the modeled scenarios, elagolix had minimal impact on long‐term risk of fracture and reaching risk‐based treatment thresholds. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".