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Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study
Spencer L James, Chris D Castle, Zachary V Dingels, Jack T Fox, Erin B Hamilton, Zichen Liu, Nicholas L S Roberts, Dillon O Sylte, Gregory J Bertolacci, Matthew Cunningham, Nathaniel J Henry, Kate E LeGrand, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Aidin Abedi, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Akine Eshete, Abdelrahman Ibrahim Abushouk, Oladimeji Adebayo, José Carmelo Adsuar, Shailesh M Advani, Marcela Agudelo‐Botero, Tauseef Ahmad, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Rushdiá Ahmed, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Fares Alahdab, Fahad Alanezi, Niguse Meles Alema, Biresaw Wassihun, Suliman Alghnam, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Saqib Ali, Cyrus Alinia, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Amir Almasi‐Hashiani, Nihad A. Almasri, Khalid A Altirkawi, Yasser Sami Amer, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Davood Anvari, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab‐Zozani, Zohreh Arefi, Olatunde Aremu, Filippo Ariani, Amit Arora, Malke Asaad, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Ghasem Azarian, Alaa Badawi, Ashish Badiye, Atif Amin Baig, Mohan Bairwa, Ahad Bakhtiari, Arun Balachandran, Maciej Banach, Srikanta Banerjee, Palash Chandra Banik, Amrit Banstola, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Akbar Barzegar, Mohsen Bayati, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Masoud Behzadifar, Habte Belete, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Archith Boloor, Guilherme Borges, Rohan Borschmann, Antonio Maria Borzì, Soufiane Boufous, Dejana Braithwaite, Н. И. Брико, Traolach Brugha, Shyam Sundar Budhathoki, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Félix Carvalho, João Maurício Castaldelli-Maia, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Giulio Castelpietra, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Joht Singh Chandan, Jens R. Chapman, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Irini Chatziralli, Neha Chaudhary, Daniel Cho, Jee-Young J Choi, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Flavia Cicuttini, João Coelho, Vera Marisa Costa, Saad M A Dahlawi, Ahmad Daryani, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Diego De Leo, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Desalegn Getnet Demsie, Kebede Deribe, Rupak Desai, Mostafa Dianati Nasab, Diana Dias da Silva, Hoa Do, Kerrie Doyle, Tim Driscoll, Eleonora Dubljanin, Bereket Duko Adema, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Ziad El‐Khatib, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Oghenowede Eyawo, Pawan Faris, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Pietro Ferrara, Florian Fischer, Morẹ́nikẹ́ Oluwátóyìn Foláyan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Masoud Foroutan, Joel M Francis, Richard C. Franklin, Takeshi Fukumoto, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Leake Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Berhe Gebremichael, Getnet Gedefaw, Birhanu Geta, Agegnehu Bante, Mansour Ghafourifard, Farhad Ghamari, Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh, Asadollah Gholamian, Syed Amir Gilani, Tiffany K Gill, Amir Hossein Goudarzian, Alessandra C. Goulart, Ayman Grada, Michal Grivna, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Yuming Guo, Gaurav Gupta, Juanita A. Haagsma, Brian J. Hall, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Josep María Haro, Amir Hasanzadeh, Shoaib Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Delia Hendrie, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Martha Hı́jar, Hung Chak Ho, Chi Linh Hoang, Michael K. Hole, Ramesh Holla, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Sorin Hostiuc, Guoqing Hu, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, M. Mofizul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rebecca Ivers, Mohammad Ali Jahani, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Farzad Jalilian, Sudha Jayaraman, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ravi Prakash Jha, Yetunde O. John-Akinola, Jost B. Jonas, Kelly Jones, Nitin Joseph, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Suresh Jungari, Mikk Jürisson, Ali Kabir, Amaha Kahsay, Leila R Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Teshome Abegaz Kamil, Tanuj Kanchan, Neeti Kapoor, Manoochehr Karami, Amir Kasaeian, Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye, Taras Kavetskyy, Gbenga A Kayode, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Yousef Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Nauman Khalid, Rovshan Khalilov, Maseer Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Tripti Khanna, Salman Khazaei, Habibolah Khazaie, Roba Khundkar, Daniel N Kiirithio, Young‐Eun Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Daniel Kim, Sezer Kısa, Adnan Kısa, Hamidreza Komaki, Ali Koolivand, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov, Ai Koyanagi, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Kewal Krishan, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Nuworza Kugbey, Nithin Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Vivek Kumar, Narinder Kumar, Girikumar Kumaresh, Faris Lami, Van Charles Lansingh, Savita Lasrado, Arman Latifi, Paolo Lauriola, Carlo La Vecchia, Janet L Leasher, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Shanshan Li, Xuefeng Liu, Alan D Lopez, Paulo A. Lotufo, Ronan A Lyons, Daiane Borges Machado, Mohammed Madadin, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Marek Majdán, Azeem Majeed, Venkatesh Maled, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Navid Manafi, Amir Manafi, Ana-Laura Manda, Narayana Manjunatha, Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Joemer C Maravilla, Amanda J. Mason‐Jones, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Pallab K Maulik, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Zeleke Aschalew Melketsedik, Peter Memiah, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G. Menezes, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Tuomo J Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Hayimro Edemealem Merie, Tomislav Meštrović, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R. Miller, GK Mini, Andreea Mirică, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, M. Mirzaei, Prasanna Mithra, Babak Moazen, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Efat Mohamadi, Yousef Mohammad, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Shafiu Mohammed, Jemal Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Mohammad Ali Mohseni Bandpei, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Yoshan Moodley, Masoud Moradi, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Lídia Morawska, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Shane D. Morrison, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gurudatta Naik, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Morteza Naserbakht, Vinod C Nayak, Javad Nazari, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Ionuţ Negoi, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Diep Ngoc Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Onome Bright Oghenetega, In‐Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna Onwujekwe, Heather Orpana, Erika Ota, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, P A Mahesh, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Smita Pakhalé, Keyvan Pakshir, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Eun‐Kee Park, Sangram Kishor Patel, Ashish Pathak, Sanghamitra Pati, Kebreab Paulos, Amy E. Peden, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Jeevan Pereira, Michael Phillips, Р. В. Полибин, Suzanne Polinder, Farshad Pourmalek, Akram Pourshams, Hossein Poustchi, Swayam Prakash, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Parul Puri, Navid Rabiee, Mohammad Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Ata Rafiee, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Siavash Rahimi, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Ali Rajabpour-Sanati, Fatemeh Rajati, Ivo Rakovac, Sowmya J Rao, Vahid Rashedi, Prateek Rastogi, Priya Rathi, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Reza Rawassizadeh, Vishnu Renjith, Serge Resnikoff, Aziz Rezapour, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Jennifer Rickard, Carlos Miguel Ríos-González, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Basema Saddik, Hamid Safarpour, Mahdi Safdarian, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Marwa Rashad Salem, Hosni Salem, Inbal Salz, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Lídia Sànchez-Riera, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Arash Sarveazad, Brijesh Sathian, Monika Sawhney, Mehdi Sayyah, David C. Schwebel, Soraya Seedat, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Feng Sha, Faramarz Shaahmadi, Saeed Shahabi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Aziz Sheikh, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Soraya Siabani, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Ambrish Singh, Pankaj Kumar Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Amin Soheili, Joan B. Soriano, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Mark A. Stokes, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bryan L. Sykes, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Karen M. Tabb, Biruk Wogayehu, Yibekal Manaye Tefera, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu, Ayenew Kassie, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Rekha Thapar, М. В. Титова, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Hamid Reza Tohidinik, Roman Topór-Mądry, Khanh Bao Tran, Bach Xuan Tran, Jaya Prasad Tripathy, Alexander C. Tsai, Aristidis Tsatsakis, Lorainne Tudor Car, Irfan Ullah, Saif Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Era Upadhyay, Olalekan A. Uthman, Pascual Valdéz, Tommi Vasankari, Yousef Veisani, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Yasir Waheed, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Taweewat Wiangkham, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Dawit Habte Woldeyes, Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh, Adam Wondmieneh, Ai-Min Wu, Grant M. A. Wyper, Rajaram Yadav, Ali Yadollahpour, Yuichiro Yano, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi‐Feyzabadi, Pengpeng Ye, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Yoosik Youm, Mustafa Z Younis, Zabihollah Yousefi, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Hamed Zandian, Fatemeh Zarei, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Sanjay Zodpey, Rakhi Dandona, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Simon I Hay, Ali H. Mokdad, David M. Pigott, Robert C. Reiner, Theo Vos
Bibliographic record
VenueInjury Prevention · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicInjury Epidemiology and Prevention
Canadian institutionsUniversity of AlbertaUniversity of British ColumbiaMcMaster UniversityUniversité de MontréalPublic Health Agency of CanadaSimon Fraser UniversityUniversity of OttawaYork UniversityUniversity of ManitobaOttawa HospitalCentre for Global Health ResearchUniversity of TorontoUniversité du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
FundersFogarty International CenterNational Health and Medical Research CouncilSanofi PasteurNational Institutes of HealthSistema Nacional de Investigación, Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e InnovaciónXiamen UniversityCochrane South AfricaU.S. Department of DefenseMinistarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog RazvojaKing's College LondonUniversiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaKuwait UniversityNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Cancer InstituteDeakin UniversityPublic Health AgencyMedical Research CouncilDepartment of Health and Social CareIndian Council of Medical ResearchSouth African Medical Research CouncilNational Heart Foundation of AustraliaPublic Health Agency of CanadaBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchWorld Health OrganizationWellcome TrustAlexander von Humboldt-StiftungSanofiFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaBill and Melinda Gates FoundationInstituto de Salud Carlos IIIMinistério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino SuperiorNIH Clinical CenterAustralian Government
KeywordsBurden of diseaseYears of potential life lostEstimationInjury preventionMedicineIncidence (geometry)Poison controlDisease burdenCause of deathOccupational safety and healthDiseaseSuicide preventionMortality rateHuman factors and ergonomicsDemographyMedical emergencyEnvironmental healthPopulationLife expectancySurgeryEngineering
Abstract
BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.034
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.065
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.035
Threshold uncertainty score0.182
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.034 | 0.065 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.010 | 0.021 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.159
GPT teacher head0.512
Teacher spread0.353 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations117
Published2020
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes