Pay Attention to Evolution: Time Series Forecasting With Deep Graph-Evolution Learning
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. It has the power to bring light to problems in several areas of knowledge, such as epidemiological studies, healthcare inference, and climate change analysis. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. An open gap in the literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. The existing applications consistently disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions, named after Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network ( <sc xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">ReGENN</small> ). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing <sc xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">ReGENN</small> with tens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones. The results outperformed both statistical and ensemble-learning approaches, showing an improvement of 64.87 percent over the competing algorithms on the SARS-CoV-2 dataset of the renowned John Hopkins University for 188 countries simultaneously. For further validation, we tested our architecture in two other public datasets of different domains, the PhysioNet Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2012 and Brazilian Weather datasets. We also analyzed the <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">Evolution Weights</i> arising from the hidden layers of <sc xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">ReGENN</small> to describe how the variables of the dataset interact with each other; and, as a result of looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, we concluded that time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it