Efficient nonparametric estimation for skewed distributions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Many variables encountered in practice have skewed distributions. While the sample mean is unbiased for the true mean regardless of the underlying distribution that generated the sample observations, it can be highly unstable in the context of skewed distributions. To cope with this problem, we propose an efficient estimator of the population mean based on the concept of conditional bias of a unit, which can be viewed as a measure of its influence. The idea is to reduce the impact of the sample units that have a large influence. The resulting estimator depends on a cut‐off value. We suggest selecting the cut‐off value that minimizes the maximum absolute estimated conditional bias with respect to the proposed estimator. An estimator of the mean square error is also presented. An empirical investigation comparing several estimators in terms of relative bias and relative efficiency suggests that the proposed estimator and the estimator of its mean square error perform well for a wide class of distributions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it