The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to tropical and extratropical volcanic eruptions has important worldwide implications for volcanically driven risk estimates. While there have been many studies on this subject using observations, paleoclimate archives, and model simulations, a comprehensive review of ENSO response to tropical and extratropical volcanic eruptions has not been presented to date. The relatively short observational record is suggestive of a relationship between tropical volcanism and El Niño events. Analyzing 17 previously defined reconstructions of ENSO, which on average span the past 550 years, we find that 70% of these reconstructions display a significant eastern Pacific warming (El Niño–like) response in the year of eruption, when a consistent set of volcanic events dates are used. There also appears to be an emerging consensus from models, with the overwhelming majority displaying a relative El Niño–like response in the eruption year. Thus, here we report that there is a clear consistency of evidence between observations, paleo-proxies, and models. Questions remain, however, over exactly how the near-uniform radiative cooling of a tropical volcanic event projects onto ENSO. There is little observational and paleoclimatic evidence for the impact of extratropical volcanism on ENSO; however, models suggest that an extratropical Northern (Southern) Hemisphere eruption leads to a relative El Niño–like (La Niña–like) response. Despite the consistency in the evidence presented above, many subtle differences still exist among the modeled response to tropical and extratropical volcanic forcing that could be aided by the use of a consistent experimental protocol for general circulation model simulations (i.e., VolMIP).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".