The Effect of Strong Volcanic Eruptions on ENSO
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary The response of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to tropical and extratropical volcanic eruptions has important worldwide implications for volcanically driven risk estimates. While there have been many studies on this subject using observations, paleoclimate archives, and model simulations, a comprehensive review of ENSO response to tropical and extratropical volcanic eruptions has not been presented to date. The relatively short observational record is suggestive of a relationship between tropical volcanism and El Niño events. Analyzing 17 previously defined reconstructions of ENSO, which on average span the past 550 years, we find that 70% of these reconstructions display a significant eastern Pacific warming (El Niño–like) response in the year of eruption, when a consistent set of volcanic events dates are used. There also appears to be an emerging consensus from models, with the overwhelming majority displaying a relative El Niño–like response in the eruption year. Thus, here we report that there is a clear consistency of evidence between observations, paleo-proxies, and models. Questions remain, however, over exactly how the near-uniform radiative cooling of a tropical volcanic event projects onto ENSO. There is little observational and paleoclimatic evidence for the impact of extratropical volcanism on ENSO; however, models suggest that an extratropical Northern (Southern) Hemisphere eruption leads to a relative El Niño–like (La Niña–like) response. Despite the consistency in the evidence presented above, many subtle differences still exist among the modeled response to tropical and extratropical volcanic forcing that could be aided by the use of a consistent experimental protocol for general circulation model simulations (i.e., VolMIP).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it