Latent Class and Transition Analysis of Alzheimer's Disease Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study uses independent latent class analysis (LCA) and latent transition analysis (LTA) to explore accurate diagnosis and disease status change of a big Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data of 2,132 individuals over a 3-year period. The data includes clinical and neural measures of controls (CN), individuals with subjective memory complains (SMC), early-onset mild cognitive impairment (EMCI), late-onset mild cognitive impairment (LMCI), and Alzheimer's disease (AD). LCA at each time point yielded 3 classes: Class 1 is mostly composed of individuals from CN, SMC, and EMCI groups; Class 2 represents individuals from LMCI and AD groups with improved scores on memory, clinical, and neural measures; in contrast, Class 3 represents LMCI and from AD individuals with deteriorated scores on memory, clinical, and neural measures. However, 63 individuals from Class 1 were diagnosed as AD patients. This could be misdiagnosis, as their conditional probability of belonging to Class 1 (0.65) was higher than that of Class 2 (0.27) and Class 3 (0.08). LTA results showed that individuals had a higher probability of staying in the same class over time with probability >0.90 for Class 1 and 3 and probability >0.85 for Class 2. Individuals from Class 2, however, transitioned to Class 1 from time 2 to time 3 with a probability of 0.10. Other transition probabilities were not significant. Lastly, further analysis showed that individuals in Class 2 who moved to Class 1 have different memory, clinical, and neural measures to other individuals in the same class. We acknowledge that the proposed framework is sophisticated and time-consuming. However, given the severe neurodegenerative nature of AD, we argue that clinicians should prioritize an accurate diagnosis. Our findings show that LCA can provide a more accurate prediction for classifying and identifying the progression of AD compared to traditional clinical cut-off measures on neuropsychological assessments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.018 | 0.034 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".