Forecasting subnational COVID‐19 mortality using a day‐of‐the‐week adjusted Bayesian hierarchical model
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
As of October 2020, the death toll from the COVID‐19 pandemic has risen over 1.1 million deaths worldwide. Reliable estimates of mortality due to COVID‐19 are important to guide intervention strategies such as lockdowns and social distancing measures. In this paper, we develop a data‐driven model that accurately and consistently estimates COVID‐19 mortality at the regional level early in the epidemic, using only daily mortality counts as the input. We use a Bayesian hierarchical skew‐normal model with day‐of‐the‐week parameters to provide accurate projections of COVID‐19 mortality. We validate our projections by comparing our model to the projections made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and highlight the importance of hierarchicalization and day‐of‐the‐week effect estimation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.026 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it