GrimAge Outperforms Other Epigenetic Clocks in the Prediction of Age-Related Clinical Phenotypes and All-Cause Mortality
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The aging process is characterized by the presence of high interindividual variation between individuals of the same chronical age prompting a search for biomarkers that capture this heterogeneity. Epigenetic clocks measure changes in DNA methylation levels at specific CpG sites that are highly correlated with calendar age. The discrepancy resulting from the regression of DNA methylation age on calendar age is hypothesized to represent a measure of biological aging with a positive/negative residual signifying age acceleration (AA)/deceleration, respectively. The present study examines the associations of 4 epigenetic clocks-Horvath, Hannum, PhenoAge, GrimAge-with a wide range of clinical phenotypes (walking speed, grip strength, Fried frailty, polypharmacy, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MOCA), Sustained Attention Reaction Time, 2-choice reaction time), and with all-cause mortality at up to 10-year follow-up, in a sample of 490 participants in the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA). HorvathAA and HannumAA were not predictive of health; PhenoAgeAA was associated with 4/9 outcomes (walking speed, frailty MOCA, MMSE) in minimally adjusted models, but not when adjusted for other social and lifestyle factors. GrimAgeAA by contrast was associated with 8/9 outcomes (all except grip strength) in minimally adjusted models, and remained a significant predictor of walking speed, .polypharmacy, frailty, and mortality in fully adjusted models. Results indicate that the GrimAge clock represents a step-improvement in the predictive utility of the epigenetic clocks for identifying age-related decline in an array of clinical phenotypes promising to advance precision medicine.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".