Prevalence of prurigo nodularis in the United States of America: A retrospective database analysis
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
To the Editor: Prurigo nodularis (PN) is a chronic disease characterized by multiple intensely pruriginous nodules and papules and presents significant challenges for treatment and quality of life.1Ständer H.F. Elmariah S. Zeidler C. Spellman M. Ständer S. Diagnostic and treatment algorithm for chronic nodular prurigo.J Am Acad Dermatol. 2020; 82: 460-468Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (28) Google Scholar Prevalence data are currently scarce,1Ständer H.F. Elmariah S. Zeidler C. Spellman M. Ständer S. Diagnostic and treatment algorithm for chronic nodular prurigo.J Am Acad Dermatol. 2020; 82: 460-468Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (28) Google Scholar although recent efforts evaluating real-world United States (US) PN prevalence have been made.2Huang A.H. Canner J.K. Khanna R. Kang S. Kwatra S.G. Real-world prevalence of prurigo nodularis and burden of associated diseases.J Invest Dermatol. 2020; 140: 480-483Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (41) Google Scholar We evaluated International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 data from 2010 and 2015 from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, and ICD-10 data (L28.1) from Medicare (2017) and the US claims databases Symphony Health (2017) and LexisNexis PxDx (2017/2018) to calculate the treatment prevalence based on estimated population size and diagnostic codes for medical claims of unique patients. We used the ICD-9 code of 698.3 for PN; given that this code is used more broadly, we conservatively estimated that 33% of encounters coded as 698.3 actually represented PN. The estimated PN prevalence ranged from 36.7 to 148.3 per 100,000 population (see Table I).3Berchick E.R. Barnett J.C. Upton R.D. Health insurance coverage in the United States.https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-267.htmlDate: 2018Google Scholar A higher estimate reflects a predominantly elderly Medicare population (see Table II for age-stratified data). Of note, the PN prevalence, based on National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey ICD-9 data, increased by 27% from 2010 to 2015. Estimates based on the more precise, recent ICD-10 coding suggest a prevalence of 36.7-43.9 per 100,000 population.Table IEstimated prevalence of PN in USANAMCSICD-9Medicare 2017 ICD-10US claims database ICD-10∗Uninsured rates in 2017 and 2018 were 7.9% and 8.5%, respectively.20102015LexisNexisPxDx2017/2018Symphony Health2017Estimated total population, n314 million321 million56.3 million326 millionEstimated PN population, n†Realistic case scenario.129,029167,70983,500119,553143,038Prevalence, %0.0410.0520.1480.0370.044Prevalence per 100,000 population, n41.152.2148.336.743.9ICD-9, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision; ICD-10, International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision; NAMCS, National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey; PN, prurigo nodularis; USA, United States of America.∗ Uninsured rates in 2017 and 2018 were 7.9% and 8.5%, respectively.† Realistic case scenario. Open table in a new tab Table IIEstimated prevalence of PN in USA stratified by age∗Age-stratified data were only available for the NAMCS ICD-9 codes.Age group (years)<1515-2425-4445-64>652010 NAMCS ICD-9†Realistic case scenario.n7949371724,92332,84459,596%6.22.919.325.546.22015 NAMCS ICD-9†Realistic case scenario.n291916,91438,07630,16479,635%1.710.122.718.047.5ICD-9, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision; NAMCS, National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey; PN, prurigo nodularis; USA, United States of America.∗ Age-stratified data were only available for the NAMCS ICD-9 codes.† Realistic case scenario. Open table in a new tab ICD-9, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision; ICD-10, International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision; NAMCS, National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey; PN, prurigo nodularis; USA, United States of America. ICD-9, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision; NAMCS, National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey; PN, prurigo nodularis; USA, United States of America. The potential limitations are as follows: ICD-9 has no PN-specific code, and ICD-10 has 2 PN codes with unknown coding accuracy.4ICD9Data.com website.http://www.icd9data.com/2015/Volume1/680-709/690-698/698/default.htmGoogle Scholar,5ICD10Data.com website.http://www.icd10data.com/ICD10CM/Codes/L00-L99/L20-L30/L28-Google Scholar The comprehensive, projected ICD-10 data from LexisNexis PxDx, which includes 165 million unique inpatient and outpatient visits, suggest that approximately 120,000 people were diagnosed with and/or treated for PN over a 12-month period (October 2017-September 2018). Despite meeting the Orphan Drug Act 1983 definition of an orphan disease (<200,000 people affected), PN, nevertheless, has a substantial case burden in the United States of America. Assuming shifts in age distribution and a better disease definition, the data may indicate an improved diagnosis of PN over the past decade. Additional clinical research, improved disease awareness, and clinical coding optimization will further improve the accuracy of PN diagnoses. Coding optimization is especially critical because data-entry errors are a source of misclassification in database analyses. Knowledge of such errors and their adjustment is helpful in improving the understanding of the disease's epidemiology. This retrospective database analysis estimates the PN prevalence in the United States of America to range from 36.7 to 43.9 per 100,000 population based on the ICD-10 coding for L28.1 (148.3 per 100,000 for the predominantly elderly Medicare population) and up to 52.2 per 100,000 population using the less accurate ICD-9 coding. In a recent analysis of a claims database providing services to 24 million enrollees, Huang et al2Huang A.H. Canner J.K. Khanna R. Kang S. Kwatra S.G. Real-world prevalence of prurigo nodularis and burden of associated diseases.J Invest Dermatol. 2020; 140: 480-483Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (41) Google Scholar identified 7095 PN cases in individuals aged 18-64 years and estimated the US prevalence to be 87,634 or 72 per 100,000 population in this demographic. Their analysis probably underestimated the true size of the 18-64–year demographic; moreover, it relied on commercial claims from a single small database, which limited generalizability and excluded the >65-year demographic. Together, these data represent recent efforts at estimating the PN prevalence in the general US population. Future challenges will be to expand the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey data to include ICD-10 coding and validate the coding accuracy of this and other databases. Editorial assistance was provided under the direction of the authors by Tom Rouwette of Excerpta Medica, with support from Trevi Therapeutics. The authors thank Brian Zorn from SmartPharma for the database analysis.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it